Chatting idly with my fellow movie critics before a screening the other night, the topic of this year's Oscars came up - specifically, whether the songs from the wonderful Irish musical romance "Once" will be eligible. Yes, as of today we're only halfway through 2007 and we're already talking about the Oscars. Usually in summertime there's not much to talk about in the Oscar race.
Sure, "Transformers" and "Spider-Man 3" are going to compete for the visual-effects honors, and "Shrek the Third," "Surf's Up" and "Ratatouille" will likely battle it out in the Animated Feature category, but the big hardware probably will go to the movies we won't see until the weather gets colder. The calendar drives this split between frothy summer films and serious wintertime fare. Out-of-school kids drive the summer box office, and they want fun, entertaining films, not thoughtful drama.
And movie studios believe - and they have anecdotal evidence to back up their belief - that Academy voters' memories are short, so they save their award-bait films for year's end. Only the Best Actress category has any likely contenders from this summer's films: Angelina Jolie's portrayal of pregnant Mariane Pearl in "A Mighty Heart," and Julie Christie's turn as an Alzheimer's-afflicted woman in "Away From Her." One of the actresses from "Evening," the Susan Minot adaptation that hit theaters this weekend, might snag a supporting-actress nomination (my vote's for newcomer, and Meryl Streep's daughter, Mamie Gummer), but only if the distributor, Focus Features, sends out a lot of DVD screeners.
So what movies are gunning for heavy Oscar play? Here, based on analyses by Movie City News' David Poland, Hollywood Elsewhere's Jeffrey Wells and my own two cents' worth, are some titles to look for: * "Charlie Wilson's War" (Christmas) - Why will this true-life tale of a Texas congressman's covert dealings with Afghanistan attract nominations like flies? Read the credits: Directed by Mike Nichols ("The Graduate," "Closer"), screenplay by Aaron Sorkin ("The West Wing"), and three Oscar winners - Tom Hanks, Julia Roberts and Philip Seymour Hoffman - in the cast.
* "No Country for Old Men" (November) - The Coen brothers' adaptation of the Cormac McCarthy novel wowed critics at Cannes, for Tommy Lee Jones' lead performance and Javier Bardem's creepy turn as a serial killer. 2) - Again, with this tale of a drug dealer-turned-informant, the credits say it all: Director Ridley Scott ("Gladiator"), writer Steven Zaillian ("Schindler's List"), and stars Denzel Washington and Russell Crowe. 12) - In 1998, star Cate Blanchett and director Shekhar Kapur rode "Elizabeth," about the early years of Queen Elizabeth I's reign, to a Best Picture nomination.
Can they do it again? * "Lions for Lambs" (November) - Robert Redford has been in Oscar's winners circle before, and this topical drama set in Afghanistan (with Redford as director and co-star) could get him there again. It doesn't hurt that he shares the screen with Meryl Streep and Tom Cruise (who is testing his mettle as producer under the rejuvenated United Artists banner).
* "Things We Lost in the Fire" (Oct. 26) - A pair of Oscar winners Ð Halle Berry and Benicio del Toro - star in this drama about a widow who takes in her husband's troubled friend. The movie is the English-language debut for Danish director Susanne Bier, whose "After the Wedding" was a foreign-language Oscar nominee last year.
* "Sweeney Todd" (December) - Tim Burton directs Johnny Depp and Helena Bonham-Carter (Burton's wife) in the Stephen Sondheim musical about the "demon barber of Fleet Street." A risky enterprise, but if Burton pulls it off it could be golden. Chatting idly with my fellow movie critics before a screening the other night, the topic of this year's Oscars came up - specifically, whether the songs from the wonderful Irish musical romance "Once" will be eligible.
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