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Posts from the Box Office Predictions 1 Category at Cinematical

Posts from the Box Office Predictions 1 Category at Cinematical
Ronaldinho  |  by www.cinematical.com. All rights reserved. 16.07 | 23:24

was pretty easy to call; anyone who didn't think would reign triumphant must have something against ogres of color. Our winners, each with perfect predictions, were bubba8193 (again!) and Mario.

Congrats, guys. Your auras of superiority are in the mail.
This week?

Hmm, tough call. Will fans mobilize and launch to the top of the charts?

What It's About: Jack Sparrow ( ) is trapped in Davy Jones' locker at the World's End, dead (or "dead") and insane; Elizabeth Swann ( ), feeling guilty for abandoning him, leads the rescue brigade; Will Turner ( ) wants to free his father from his debt to Davy Jones; and Barbossa ( ) (who was dead, but is feeling much better) is antsy about the East India Company, which -- using Davy Jones ( ) as its pawn -- is threatening to end the pirates' way of life forever.

The motley crew heads to Singapore, where Sao Feng ( ) possesses not just the maps to the World's End but also the power to convene the Brethren Court of Pirate Lords.
Why It Might Break the Record: Last summer's set a box office record with an opening take of $135 million; this summer the title shifted to ($151 million). Seeing as how the blockbusters seem to be setting new records practically every week, why shouldn't At World's End be any different?

On top of that, this installment, which has all the members of the franchise returning, is something of a finale to the series ...

even if it isn't (based on ) actually the end.
Why It Might Not Break the Record: At 168 minutes, and with so many plotlines ( too many), it's not for the casual viewer. The length also limits the number of times per day that a theater can show the film; Spider-Man 3, if you're keeping score, was 139 minutes long.

(Cranky old lady rant: Whatever happened to the days when two hours was considered long? Anyone? Anyone?

)
Prediction: $168 million

Lesson for the day: Never listen to my friend . , he insisted to me that had no shot of making the top five, and that , for all its flaws, was a shoo-in for the fifth spot. "But, !

" I said. "He's got ..

. fans! Or something.

" Nah, he said, go with The Ex. So I did, and as it turned out, I was wrong. Wrong, the opposite of right.

(If you got that movie quote, you're my new best friend.) Here's how it shook out:
Two of our posters, being undistracted by The Kevin, achieved perfect scores last week: three-peater bubba8193 (ho-hum, dominance is just SO boring, isn't it?) and chris (welcome to the top, dawg!

). But enough about piddling $3 million movies. (The Ex, for the record, earned $1.

4 million and didn't even make the top ten.) Move over, Spidey, there's a new green goblin -- umm, ogre -- in town ..

.

What It's About: The big green guy ( ) finds himself heir to the throne when his father-in-law, King Harold, kicks the bucket. Trouble is, Shrek wants no part of this king business, so he sets off to find Fiona's cousin Artie ( ), who might be up for it instead -- or he would, if he weren't already reigning as King of the High School Losers (Never Made It With the Ladies).

Meanwhile, Prince Charming ( ) mobilizes a team of villains so that he can take the throne for himself.
Why It Might Do Well: It's the only blockbuster opening this weekend -- in fact, the only movie opening wide, period -- so that's kind of a no-brainer. Plus, as the summer's first true family film (it's rated PG, whereas Spider-Man 3 is rated PG-13), it will certainly overtake Spidey for the No.

1 spot.
Why It Might Not Do Well: Shrek earned $42 million its opening weekend; Shrek 2 an astonishing $108 million, setting a record for biggest opening for an animated film. Will this third installment shatter its own record?

It could ...

or it's possible audiences might be suffering from a little bit of Shrek fatigue.
Prediction: $110 million

Unless you've been cooped up David Blaine-like in a box somewhere, you know that finished first, shattering the box-office record with a $151 million opening. Given the inevitability of No.

1, you'd think all our predictors would knock this one out of the park -- but no one ended up with a perfect prediction. Here's how the box office top five shook down:
bubba8193 finished first -- again! -- with evilone1414 nipping at his heels.

Aaaand I finished last ...

again. (Full list of results after the jump.) Of course, I threw the whole thing to make you guys look good; as a wise man once said, everything I do, I do it for you.

But seriously, since there's nothing I can say about Spidey that hasn't already been said, I'll put this out there instead: What ...

is the deal ...

with Disturbia? Have that many people never heard of ? Does really have that many fans?

Or is everything else out there just that unappealing? OK. Letting it go now.

I promise.

What It's About: In this follow-up to zombie thriller , survivors return to London only to face the aftermath of the rage virus: paranoia, betrayal, cowardice, people eating each other. Good times.


Why It Might Do Well: 28 Days Later was a sleeper hit, earning $45 million domestically, and for this one have generally been positive. C'mon, who doesn't love zombies?
Why It Might Not Do Well: Most of its target audience will be seeing Spider-Man 3 this weekend, and this feels like the umpteenth horror movie to come out in 2007.


Prediction: $15 million

, our old pal bubba8193 triumphed against evilone1414 and rose to the top of the leaderboard, perfectly predicting the following box office top five:
Oh, I could talk about how surprising it was for Disturbia to three-peat, or how even couldn't save a dud like Next (or maybe it's the other way around?), but why linger on last week when we're face-to-face with the first weekend of the summer movie season? Say hello, everyone.

There's a teeny-tiny little movie launching on this most special day -- you may have heard of it.


What It's About: Just when everything's going gangbusters for Peter Parker -- the city loves Spider-Man, he's got a hot girlfriend -- an alien black goo gloms onto him, turns his suit black and makes him think he's a badass. Meanwhile, three villains mobilize against him: Flint Marko, Uncle Ben's actual murderer, who escapes from prison and is molecularized into Sandman; Eddie Brock, a rival photographer who also gets infected with the goo and turns into the toothy, maniacal Venom; and Peter's old friend Harry Osborn, aka New Goblin, who's still intent on avenging his father's death.


Why It Might Do Well: Might do well? Really the question here is: Will it break the domestic record for biggest box-office opening ever? The figure to aim for is $135.

6 million, the amount earned by last July. Spider-Man 3 faces much less competition than Pirates did, and it's opening on a record 4,252 screens; on the other hand, some of the has been mixed. But Spidey is review-proof -- and at any rate, most agree that the action in this film is better than ever.


Why It Might Not Do Well: There could be a nationwide blackout. Aliens could land on Earth and insist that all theaters be dedicated to showing their home movies. The possibilities are endless, really.


Prediction: $138 million
What It's About: plays Huck, a professional gambler who can't seem to hold onto anything -- love, money or his relationship with his father ( ), a legendary poker player. Huck's attempts to get a seat at the World Series of Poker coincide with his meeting a cute, poker-ignorant singer Billie ( ) and warily reuniting with his estranged dad.
Why It Might Do Well: People who have no interest in seeing Spider-Man may head for this film, which was directed by ( ).

And those who love Eric Bana, poker and Vegas (I'm guilty and I'm proud) will find plenty to enjoy here.
Why It Might Not Do Well: There's a lot of poker in it. A looooot of poker, which the generally weak have noted.

And while Barrymore can headline a hit movie, she's just a sidenote to this story; Bana isn't a big enough star yet to drive crowds to the theaters. Oh, and also, um ..

. Spider-Man 3.
Prediction: $8 million
What up, movie peeps?

First, let's see what happened with . When the dust cleared Sunday, the final top five looked like this:
Our winner? Evilone1414, who, just like a certain movie about a teenaged peeping tom, was king of the hill for the second week in a row -- getting every pick right except for reversing the order of Vacancy and Meet the Robinsons.

Evil rules! As for myself, I finished dead last ..

. again. Looks like this week -- the notorious Last Weekend of April, not known for its high-quality fare (last year's No.

1: ) -- I may need the services of someone who can actually see the future. Now, who would that be?

What It's About: stars as a small-time clairvoyant magician and card shark who, after having a vision of L.

A. being annihilated, must decide whether or not to use his power for good.
Why It Might Do Well: It's an incredibly weak field of movies this weekend, with everyone getting out of the way of the advancing juggernaut.

Next is the only standout in terms of marketing and expectations, and Nicolas Cage is certainly a draw (just look at ).
Why It Might Not Do Well: Reason number one would have to be Cage's hair, which is giving unfortunate 'do in a run for its money. Help me think of a name for this hairstyle: the ?

Reason number two: The film's pretty generic as far as action movies go, and probably wouldn't be a blip on anyone's radar were it opening in any month other than April.
Prediction: $14 million
Last week, evilone1414 and isaac showed the power of being eeeevil by scoring a perfect 16 points in our weekly prediction game. (Sorry to lump you in there, isaac, but your name doesn't have anything I can make fun of.

) Will Master of Evil show similar devilish luck -- sorry, skill -- this weekend?

What It's About: Wiley coyote Anthony Hopkins shoots his wife and then cops to it -- so why can't hotshot prosecutor slam this case shut?
Why It Might Do Well: You've got an Oscar winner (Hopkins) and an Oscar nominee (Gosling) going mano-a-mano in a psychological thriller that's getting largely positive .

And while the movie's targeting serious adult moviegoers, Gosling's got plenty of female fans, too. (Oh, Sir Tony, you know the ladies love you.)
Why It Might Not Do Well: Remember what I just said about the movie targeting "serious adult moviegoers"?

With rare exceptions, these types of movies don't tend to finish first at the box office. And neither actor is a guaranteed box office draw.
Prediction: $12 million

What It's About: A squabbling husband and wife ( and ) undergo an extreme version of couples therapy when they check into a dirtbag motel, only to find they've been cast as the leads in the staff's next home-movie snuff film.

Umm, congrats?
Why It Might Do Well: Horror sells, and this one's got an interesting and original premise. Also, Luke Wilson and Kate Beckinsale?

Pretty.
Why It Might Not Do Well: It's rated R, so it'll lose some of its intended audience to the more teen-friendly . And unlike the rest of the Frat Pack, Wilson has proved curiously incapable of building on his success.


Prediction: $14 million
Well, I was a tad overly optimistic about , wasn't I? Turns out not that many people want to sit through three hours of zombie gore and vehicular manslaughter. Go figger.

This week, just in time for Friday the 13th, we've got loads of movies opening, most of them thrillers. It's doubtful any of them will make a , but they should provide for an entertaining weekend nonetheless.
What It's About: A journalist ( ), suspecting a philandering businessman ( ) of killing her friend, poses as an office temp and plays a seductive cat-and-mouse game with him to get at the truth.


Why It Might Do Well: Berry and Willis are big, big stars, each capable of headlining a hit movie on his/her own; and Sony has put some major marketing muscle behind this flick. Plus, Halle Berry is the most beautiful person on the planet. That isn't particularly relevant here, but I thought it needed to be said.


Why It Might Not Do Well: The reviews haven't been great, and it's rated R, which will limit its audience to adults and determined teens with cool parents and/or fake IDs.
Prediction: $15 million

What It's About: stars as a troubled kid who's sentenced to house arrest for acting out in class. Having nothing better to do than spy on his neighbors, he and his friends start to think one of them may be a serial killer.

It's kind of like , except the protagonist's younger, not in a wheelchair, and, um, under arrest.
Why It Might Do Well: Going head-to-head with Perfect Stranger in the battle of the weekend thrillers, Disturbia has one crucial weapon in its corner: It's rated a teen-friendly PG-13. And LaBeouf's star is on the rise: Not only will he star in two big animated movies this year ( and ), but he's also with in the .


Why It Might Not Do Well: While he's certainly an up-and-comer, Shia's still no Bruce Willis. The biggest names besides LaBeouf are (as his mom -- I don't know why this depresses me, but it does) and as the maybe-murderous neighbor.
Prediction: $15 million
Happy Good Friday, one and all!

What's so good about it, you ask? Well, it's Friday, for one thing. Honestly, isn't that enough?

Seriously, there's lots to look forward to this weekend: Easter, , (yes, I'll admit it, I'm something of an HBO whore), and one of the most hotly anticipated movies of this young spring ...



What It's About: Best buds and team up for a double feature paying homage to an era when the movies were trashy, the women were ...

uh, trashy, and the gore was cheesily over-the-top. Rodriguez's Planet Terror is a terrifically bad ("bad" meaning "awesome") zombie flick starring as an go-go dancer with a machine gun for a leg and as her gunslinging ex-boyfriend; Tarantino's Death Proof is about a stunt man ( ) who stalks women with his muscle car and then -- well, let's just say his car has a skull and crossbones on it, and leave it at that. Oh, and don't forget the fake slasher-film trailers contributed by Rodriguez, , and .


Why It Might Do Well: The release of this film, with its two powerhouse directors, is definitely an event. When's the last time a movie (or movies) dropped all pretense and just reveled in being fun? All the fanboys who've seen four times have something else to salivate about now.


Why It Might Not Do Well: At 180 minutes long, Grindhouse can only have so many showings a day. And let's face it, not everyone's a fan of Tarantino or Rodriguez -- ultimately you're either dying to see this film, or you wouldn't go see it if Tarantino himself showed up at your door and begged.
Prediction: $26 million
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Hey guys.

We've got loads of ground to cover and not a lot of time to cover it, so I'm going to go with an abbreviated version of the box office prediction today. Let me know what you think about the new format, and I may just stick with it going forward. We cool?

All right.

What It's About: Everyone's favorite ninja turtles are back, but this time they're disllusioned and scattered ..

. and oh yeah, they're CGI. But their fighting skills, we assume, remain unaffected.


Why It Might Do Well: Come on, they're ninja turtles! The cartoon was wildly popular, of course, and the previous movies have been box office gold, with the first one grossing $135 million domestically.
Why It Might Not Do Well: This is the fourth 'Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtle' movie -- has turtle fatigue set in?

Also, some fans seem almost violently upset about the new CGI look, and the aren't so hot.
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What It's About: Mutants. Flesh-eating mutants.

Again.
Why It Might Do Well: It's a horror movie, and the first one, which came in 2006, was something of a surprise hit. Also, Wes Craven wrote it, as he wrote the first one.


Why It Might Not Do Well: I'll give you five bucks if you can even name one person in this movie. (OK, I won't. But I will give you an imaginary cookie.

)
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The blood-soaked Greek war epic once again left the competition bruised and battered this weekend, taking in a cool $31.2 million to hold its No. 1 position at the box office.


Sorry I'm posting so late. NCAA basketball, snowstorms ..

. it's madness, I tell you! March Madness!


: stars as a woman who wakes up to learn her husband has been killed in a car crash. The next day, he's alive, as if nothing happened; the next day, he's dead again. And so on.

Eventually she figures out that this isn't just another recurring nightmare like the one where she's at the grocery store naked, and she races to reverse the course of events before her premonition comes true. Bullock's one of those actors -- one of the rare actresses, in fact -- who can draw crowds to a movie simply because she's in it, so regardless of the , Premonition should wind up with a fairly strong opening.
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: Ventriloquist dummies are creepy.

I mean, just looking at the picture on the left is going to give me nightmares (that seems to be a theme for me this week), and don't even get me started about that . Anyway, this latest from -makers and is about a guy who goes back to his hometown to get the bottom of his late wife's death. But the town is cursed, haunted by ventriloquist dummies who apparently cut people's tongues off.

On the one hand, there aren't any big names in this movie ( , and are the stars), and these sorts of low-budget horror films haven't done well lately (see: , ). On the other hand, Wan and Wannell are stars in their own right, and let's not forget that Saw itself came out of nowhere to become the phenomenon it is now.
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: 's second directorial effort (the first being ), a remake of the 1972 French film , stars Rock himself as a man who's bored with his suburban life and buys a Harley .

.. whoops, sorry, that's .

Rather, he gets bored and starts a flirtation with an old friend ( ) that's both innocent and not innocent at all. I certainly can't see this film doing as well as Premonition, but Chris Rock does have plenty of fans, and they'll turn out for this film. The question is, how many?


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The bottom three spots of this weekend's top five are the tough ones, I think, with Dead Silence and I Think I Love My Wife presumably battling it out -- and don't forget about . I'll give you a longer deadline since I'm posting so late, so let's get those picks in by Saturday at 5:30 pm. And if you're lost in a tournament haze, that'd be right after Louisville-Texas A M, and right before Vandy-Washington State.


To the surprise of absolutely nobody, except maybe my dead grandmother and a couple of Amish folks, wiped the floor with its competitors this weekend to finish No. 1 at the box office. What was a surprise -- even to the film's producers -- was the amount of money the movie ended up hauling in.

With an estimated three-day total of $70 million, it set a new March record (beating 's $68 million) and also had the third-highest opening of any R-rated movie (behind The , at $91 million, and , at $83 million).
There's really only one movie opening wide today -- and though the film's about an underdog going up against a superior opponent, when it comes to this weekend's box office, it's quite the other way around.
: The long-awaited movie based on Frank Miller's graphic novel comes roaring into theaters today, backed by a gargantuan marketing campaign and tons of dazzling visuals.

stars as Leonidas, king of Sparta, who -- when his kingdom is threatened by the Persian king Xerxes -- leads a band of 300 men into battle against the mighty Persian army.
First off, I have to admire any movie that puts the words "Battle of Thermopylae" on the lips of every young male under the age of 30. History teachers everywhere must be weeping with joy.

The advancing drumbeat for this movie has been defeaning for a while now, and Gerard Butler is a rising star, so quite a few female fans will be lining up for this movie, too. (Confession: I have a huge crush on Butler -- and apparently I'm -- with whom I once locked gazes at a press event, and who's much better looking in person than he is on the big screen. Um, what was I saying?

ANYWAY.)
As for the movie itself? The graphics -- a combination of live action and CGI -- are awesome, the action is cool, and let's just say the amount of time Butler and his co-stars spent in the gym was well worth the effort.

The fanboys are going to eat this one up with a spoon and mop up the rest with a hunk of bread. Who cares that the dialogue's cheesy (I lost count of the number of times Butler yelled out, "WE ..

. ARE ..

. SPARTA!!

!"), that there isn't much of a plot, and that in the end, the movie's basically a glorified video game? It wants to be a glorified video game.

"Glorified video game" sells. So while it ain't everyone's cup of tea, 300 will drive folks to the theaters in droves, and I'm not going too far out on a limb when I say it'll have a bigger opening than .
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Also opening wide this week: is a heartwarming-type movie from the people who made ; (Charmed) stars as a guy who must do good deeds in order to inherit his grandfather's money.

It's opening on 797 screens, which I guess qualifies as "wide." It teaches valuable life lessons, I'm sure, but against 300? It's toast.


My predictions below; make yours by Saturday at 2pm. And if you've seen 300, please go ahead and let us know what you think: mindlessly entertaining video game, or cinematic masterpiece?
Things are heating up on the movie front, and not soon enough.

We've got a brand-new Fincher movie and more animals than you can shake a stick at. Whatever that means.
: back.

Did you hear me? Fincher's back -- go! Run, to the theaters, now!

Who knows when it might happen again? I'm kidding, of course. But the fact that the director of and has lately been taking so long between movies (his last was , in 2002) means the arrival of Zodiac is almost something of an Event.


I'm happy to say that the film -- in which , . and are all characters trying to track down the 1960s San Francisco serial killer who calls himself Zodiac -- does not disappoint. It's a smart, intense thriller, brilliantly acted, and far more psychologically disturbing than violent (though there are a couple of early scenes that are not for the squeamish).

The only drawback is that at slightly over 2 1/2 hours, it's kind of long; and given the subject matter, the R rating, and Fincher's reputation for violence, it's not as broadly marketable a film as, say, a movie starring John Travolta and Tim Allen ...


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Happy Oscar weekend, everybody! There's still time to finalize your Oscar picks -- if you need help, check out Moviefone's (but don't blame us if you don't win, because free will is a powerful thing). And if you still haven't entered an Oscar pool, wander on over to our ; judging by how good some of you box office predictors are, one of you is bound to win the 42-inch plasma TV.

I can't win, because I'm not eligible, and no, I'm not bitter about that AT ALL. And now, on to the weekend's box office:
: It's more than just Michael Jordan's number -- there's a whole school of thought surrounding 23, which apparently shows up everywhere if you know where to look: It's the number of chromosomes each parent contributes to a child's DNA, the number of times Julius Caesar was stabbed, etc. stars as a guy who reads a thriller about the phenomenon and becomes obsessed with it, spending all his time not only imagining himself as the novel's protagonist and worrying he might be capable of murder, but also doing lots of math.

Though it's certainly not your typical Carrey comedy, the man's always a big draw, and this seems like the film to give a run for its money.
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: The dunderheaded cops of Comedy Central's hit TV show (well, it's not about to rival , but it's a hit according to cable TV standards) storm the big screen in a comedy in which they have to save a convention center from terrorists. they are not.

I wasn't able to see this film, but my colleagues did, and they thought it was the bee's kneees. (Translation: hilarious.) It'll play well to young adults and teens, the same folks who made -- which was also based on a cable TV show -- a success, so watch out.

This may be the biggest thing to happen to Reno since the .
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: Admit it, when you were a little kid, you wanted to be an astronaut -- because, as points out in , you get "all the Tang you can drink." In this feel-good film, Billy Bob Thornton plays a guy who never outgrew that dream; but when a crisis forces him to drop out of the Air Force, he starts building a rocket in his backyard.

It's no , but this crazy kid might be onto something. Astronaut Farmer is rated PG, and technically it's a family film, so in theory it should take some of audience; but there hasn't been a ton of marketing for this film, and despite some it may have a hard time taking off. (Sorry.

)
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Also Opening Wide: , a horror movie set on a remote farm in Russia. It could surprise, given that horror tends to do well; but there aren't any big names in this one, so I'm guessing it'll hover just under the top five.
Here we go.

my colleague Tommy said I told him I planned to "dominate" this weekend, which I would like to say here and now is a total lie and a big, fat jinx. Thanks, man. So come all ye faithful box office predictors, it's all you this weekend.

Deadline: Saturday at 2pm. And have fun watching the Oscars!

Read more on by www.cinematical.com. All rights reserved.
Keywords: Spider Man, Opening Wide, Davy Jones, Office Record, Also Opening Wide, Also Opening
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