AZO - Posts by Tom Barlow at BloggingStocks
Penny Ditch  |  by azo.bloggingstocks.com. All rights reserved. 23.05 | 22:32

When you're the undisputed champion, people are always .

The undisputed champion is .'s (NYSE: ) Fox network show, American Idol, and recent Nielsen stats suggest its stranglehold on the American viewership might be loosening.
Last week, an ABC show, for the week, behind AI Wednesday but ahead of AI Tuesday.

In the role of up and coming contender for the crown, you might also look at Dancing With The Stars on the (NYSE: ) network, which handily won Monday night this week.
Looking beyond the slight decline in American Idol viewership, however, I see a still-thriving franchise. Part of the decline can be attributed to shrinking television viewership, part to time-shifting via DVD recorders, and part to those who prefer to watch on-line.


American Idol continues to in the market sector that really matters to advertisers, those 18-49 years of age.
The cheeky, sassy internet show, Wallstrip, a favorite of Wall Street devotees, by (NYSE: ). The daily internet show features news and stories about market happenings, and has made a star out of host Lindsay Campbell.

Today, she gave the best, imho, announcement of a deal evar. Check it out.
This deal is emblematic of the reversal of flow underway.

Where once entertainment flowed from producer to vendor to consumer, much of the most widely-enjoyed now comes from downstream. CBS shows it has recognized this sea change, and bought a great product rather than attempting to develop its own. We can only hope they don't attempt to homogenize it in the process.


The mantra of the 00s is convergence, and (NYSE: ) is teaming with (NYSE: ) in one of the most useful convergences yet. The companies announced plans, confirming a last September, that Sony will
In partnership with British telephone giant BT Group, Sony Computer Entertainment Europe announced a four-year deal to develop and market the hardware and service. The product will initially be offered in the U.

K. BT's broadband network Openzone will also be part of the deal, which would allow Sony to add online gaming to the Playstation Portable.
This is another step toward what I call the Holy Ark of Mobility -- a mashup of cell phone, gaming platform, iPod, video viewer, web browser, camera, video recorder, e-book reader, television remote, garage door opener, car lock remote, and thermometer.

With this device and my long-wished for concierge monkey, my life would be perfect.
The British newspaper, The Telegraph, over the weekend that (NASDAQ: ) may be taking another run at , for as much as $1 billion. Bebo, launched in 2005, has become the MySpace of the U.K.

, with a reported 25 million members, mostly young people.

(NYSE: ) bought the 500 pound gorilla of social networking, MySpace, and its 100 million members for a paltry $580 million in 2005. That's $5.

80 per member, compared to $40 per member in the conjectured Yahoo! deal. Ouch.


has been the subject of speculation for the past year, and is rumored to have fended off offers from (NYSE: ) and (NYSE: ). The site can afford to wait, as it has access to capital, via backing from Benchmark Capital.
Last year, Yahoo!

offered $1 billion for another popular site, Facebook, but was rejected. The Telegraph reported that a Bebo co-founder would prefer to take the site public. I think, though, that by taking the time to prepare an IPO, Bebo runs the risk of missing out on the gold rush currently taking place.

I hesitate to use the word bubble, but with billion-dollar deals a daily occurrence, and the fickleness of the consumer in this market, the time may never be better for the founders to cash in.
Yahoo, on the other hand, has been all too quiet while its competitors glom onto properties, and I expect it to pull the trigger on a newsworthy acquisition soon.

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Yesterday that (NYSE: ) employs a historian to create genealogies for their wealthiest customers, and wealthy non-customers they wish to cultivate. This caused me to wonder if this stroke of genius might not be transferable to other markets. In this age when every business is identifying their best customers, might they not reward their customers with the services of a professional?

For example:

  • 's (NYSE: ) Sam's Club customers would love their own stevedore.
  • For 's (NYSE: ) biggest spenders -- a chauffeur, or a bail bondsman. Either would be useful.

  • ' addicts (NYSE: ) -- Their own cardiologist.
  • For (NYSE: ) customers- a personal bikini-waxer. (I wonder if this is truly a profession?

    )

  • For devotees of the iPod (NASDAQ: ) -- why not a personal audiologist? I said A PERSONAL AUIDIOLOGIST.
  • For (NYSE: ) customers -- their own aroma therapist.

  • For (NYSE: loyalists -- a magician to teach them the trick to turning five pounds of crap into a steak dinner.
  • 's (NYSE: ) favorite customers ndash;- A personal wardrobe consultation with Dog, the Bounty Hunter.
  • (NYSE: ) ndash; Their own seamstress, expert at letting out seams.

  • (NYSE: ) -- Their own personal Oxfam volunteer.
  • Posted May 22nd 2007 1:05PM by
    Filed under: ,
    After dueling with Daimler and losing again, Kirk Kerkorian has decided to take on someone his own size: himself. In a move that has analyst's opinions all over the map, Kirk Kerkorian's (NYSE: ) for its two best properties. The and the under-construction could fetch as much at $12 billion.



    The odd part of the story is that Kerkorian owns 56% of MGM Mirage. Other stockholders are not responding well to what they perceive as an attempt to cherry-pick the company's assets, questioning Kerkorian's motives. Some suggest he is trying to force the company onto the sales block, drooling at the potential price in light of Harrah's recent $17.

    1 billion sale.

    He could also be hoping to play both ways; strip off the most lucrative assets, then hope the remaining package is still alluring enough to draw venture interest. Left on the table for the moment is MGM's Grand Macau, possibly signaling Kerkorian's uncertainty about that market.



    A key part of this deal is MGM's CityCenter development, a casino-retail-hotel- condominium complex that will cost an estimated $7.9 billion. With the recent cancellation of other Vegas high-roller condo developments, CityCenter is either well poised to take advantage of the Vegas property boom or vulnerable to the slackening housing market.

    Probably the former.

    The market has shown love for the idea, so far, jumping up 30% by midmorning on the news.

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    The soup market must be simmering if from (NYSE: ) is any example.

    Its quarterly earning jumped from $146 million in 2006 to $217 million, attributed in part to an increase in marketing and a price hike. EPS rose from $.35 to $.

    55 in the same interval.
    Two sectors performed particularly well for the company. Its low-sodium soups exceeded expectation.

    (Why do I envision legions of Campbell's consumers reaching for their saltshakers? We shop with good intentions, but..

    .) The V-8 brand also pulled in healthy numbers, which reinforces my contention that the best vegetable is one that can be mixed with vodka.
    The only decline reported was in the competitive salsa market, where the Pace brands declined.

    Another Campbell brand, Godiva Chocolatier, was up, primarily due to Asian sales. The Midwest's Valentine's Day snowstorm (aka Massacre, if you're a florist), was blamed for some loss of sales.

    Adding to the sustained value of the stock is Campbell's stated intention to with the proceeds of the recent sale of its UK holdings.

    The company boosted its year-end forecast slightly to $1.94-$1.97.



    The boomer generation is limping toward retirement with pockets full of cash and bodies full of ailments, putting any drug company with top-drawer medications and solid patents in line for a windfall.

    Today's shakeup at 's (NYSE: ) drug-pipeline management, with the announced [subscription required], suggests the company isn't happy with the lack of success in restocking its shelves.
    Pfizer, the largest pharmaceutical company in the world, realized 64% of its 2006 revenue from its top nine sellers. Unfortunately, the patents for those :
    If anyone wonders why (NASDAQ: ) paid $6 billion for (NASDAQ: ), they need look no further than the for first quarter 2007. In these three months alone, 3 million people joined the broadband revolution.

    Read that as three million more potential YouTube visitors, Second Life devotees, advertisees. This represents almost 6% growth in this quarter alone, bringing the total of U.S.

    broadband subscribers to 56.2 million.
    Of that audience, 55% buy through their cable company, while the telephone industry pulls in 43%.

    For this quarter, though, the telephone side accounted for 51% of the growth. In fact, the telephone companies have led cable in acquisitions in each of the last 10 quarters.
    Leading the pack overall is (NYSE: ) with 12.

    8 million subscribers, followed closely by (NASDAQ: ) at 12 million. (NYSE: ) and (NYSE: ) both have more than 7 million subscribers. Others with over a million are Cox, Charter, Cablevision, (NYSE: ) and Embarq.

    Top performer for the quarter? AT T, with almost 700,000 new subscribers.

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    Tired of carrying around a stack of plastic cards?

    Hope may be on the horizon, and it could be bad news for (NYSE: ), VISA and others.
    has launched a service that allows users to link their driver's license, via the info on its magnetic strip, to their checking account, thus allowing them to . The program test began in Texas early this year, and will soon expand to convenience stores in the region.


    This is bad news for Visa, et.al., for two reasons.

    First, NPC is undercutting the competition by charging only $.15 per transaction instead of the percentage demanded by the national cards.
    The second problem is that this destroys branding of the product.

    Unless the BMV can be convinced to offer gold or platinum driver's licenses, commoditization of consumer credit may well follow.
    This could be only the first step in making use of the new standard for driver's licenses that standardizes mag strip contents. If the market can gain access to the individual recognition and authentication features of the BMV system, the , ATM access, or even federal benefits such as welfare and Medicare.


    Posted May 17th 2007 8:20PM by
    Filed under: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

    In 2009, UHF television stations will abandon analog frequencies as they shift to digital.

    The frequencies that they will abandon and the result could shape the internet and wireless industry for decades to come.

    These frequencies, in the 700 mhz range (channels 52-68), are desirable because they travel long distances without interference. Any company wanting to build a national wireless broadband network would find UHF the perfect foundation.

    In an age of growing connectivity, the profit potential of owning such a backbone is enormous.

    The players are already lined up to . As you can imagine, the cell phone companies will be players, if for no other reason than to keep new competitors out of their market.

    Other bidders may include satellite television providers such as DirecTV, and (NASDAQ: ).

    Posted May 17th 2007 7:32PM by
    Filed under: , ,
    Understand that Engadget is our sister blog, a star in the AOL constellation, with great writers that push the envelope every day to bring readers the very latest, hottest tech news. Yesterday, that drive came back to bite them in the ass when, acting on a tip from a reliable source, they blogged, and then were that the
    Unfortunately, in the interval, (NASDAQ: )'s stock lost an estimated $4 billion in about six minutes. Within half an hour of the blog's retraction, the stock had recovered almost its full value.

    Posted May 17th 2007 3:25PM by
    Filed under:
    When took over "The Price is Right" in 1972, The U.

    S. was negotiating with North Vietnam for a cease-fire. Nixon was about to defeat George McGovern for a second term in the White House, even while under the cloud of the growing Watergate scandal.

    Mark Spitz had just won seven Olympic gold medals in swimming. ATARI was launched. David Bowie unleashed "The Rise and Fall of Ziggy Stardust and the Spiders From Mars.

    "

    I have to stop for a moment to digest the vision of Bob Barker and David Bowie (in high androgyny) side by side.

    In other words, the dude is ooooold. His hair was white before Anderson Cooper had any.

    The Cadillac DeVille he might have given away would have cost $6,168.

    So how did the avuncular Barker last 50 years on . (NYSE: )?

    By tapping into two wellsprings flowing through American society -- our obsessive need to have more stuff, and our hope that someone would magically give us the stuff we wanted. Before the government took on the role of sugar daddy, we looked to television for such beneficence.

    While greed was the subtext, the show never made us feel stupid.

    Bob didn't care if we knew the capital of Paraguay, as long as we had a notion what a walnut dinner set from the good people at Thomasville cost. He also never treated his contestants as idiots, although many were. His bulletproof alabaster smile was something viewers could count on, year after year.



    Barker and his show seem like relics of another age, the age of limitless abundance. But damn, he made consumerism fun. I hope, behind the curtain labeled "retirement," Barker finds the treasure of his dreams.

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    Keywords: Posted May, american Idol, David Bowie
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