Continuing my individual team analysis, it's time to look at the Denver Nuggets. Again, for more information on the stats I use, check this post , and for the western conference overview, look here . Denver Nuggets Coach: George Karl 2006-2007 Record: 45-37 Expected Record: 45-37 Offensive Rating: 107.
8 (8th in NBA, league average 106.5) Defensive Rating: 105.6 (11th in NBA, league average 106.
5) eFG%: 50.1% (12th in NBA) Possessions per 48: 97.4 (2nd in NBA) Roster (You'll have to scroll to see it all.
Red indicates new player, blue indicates rookie) A lot of people forget that if the season had ended the game before Melo went and got himself suspended, he would've been the MVP. He had an incredibly hot start to the season, scoring under 25 only 3 times in those first 22 games and shooting right around 50% from the field. He was almost as good when he came back, except for a bad March which was, coincidentally, the first real long stretch of time he and Iverson hit the court together.
Both players played better after that month, and it led to a 10-1 April to close the regular season. I didn't particularly like the Chucky Atkins signing because I they really needed a true point (like keeping Steve Blake). However, Atkins does give them something they sorely need, and that is perimeter shooting.
J.R. Smith and Linas Kleiza were the only decent long-range shooters on the squad last year.
Nene had best be working hard in training camp, because he looked absolutely terrible in the Tournament of the Americas. He was clearly out of shape and overweight, and he didn't make any impact at all, even missing open dunks in transition. He's capable of big things, but he's got to work at it.
If, and I realize this is a huge if, Kenyon Martin comes back at anywhere near his old self, this frountcourt is nasty. Martin scores well in transition, hits the offensive glass, and is a good defender. Guys who can get things done without having plays run for them are essential on a team with Melo and AI.
With that in mind, I don't care how cramped the frontcourt minutes are, Eduardo Najera needs to be on the floor a lot. I've liked him since he was in Dallas, he's one of the best energy guys in the league. He hustles his butt off, and he rebounds pretty well, especially on the offensive end.
Marcus Camby is the most important player on this team. If he's healthy, they have an elite defensive center who isn't half bad on the other end either. Without him, they have a gaping hole in the middle.
Von Wafer may not get a whole lot of burn this season, but you might want to keep an eye on him. He lit up the summer league, and he's a great perimeter shooter. He was a terrific talent at FSU who left too early, but he might be coming into his own now.
X-Factor: J.R. Smith - No player spent more time in George Karl's doghouse than Smith last year, but the Nuggets desperately need him to have his head on straight this year.
When he's on, he provides a great scorer off the bench and a badly needed perimeter shooter. When he's off, he can shoot you out of ballgames and make costly mistakes with his complacency. He has all the tools to be a very good player, but he's got to put it together mentally and do what it takes to help the team win.
Overview Everyone knew that the Nuggets could score last year, but they had a surprisingly good defense too, anchored in the middle by Camby. What is interesting about the Nuggets defense is that they didn't rebound very well on the defensive end, didn't force a ton of turnovers, and allowed a fairly high shooting percentage, but came out all right in the end. The reason?
The Nuggets very rarly fouled opposing shooters and so they didn't give up free points. Only one team in the league gave up less free throws per shot attempt than the Nuggets did. Still, you'd like to pin your championship hopes on something a little more solid than that, so if Carmelo and the gang want to contend, they'll need to shore up their defense, especially on the glass where they were 21st in rebound rate (kind of surprising for a team who rebounded on the offensive glass as well as they did).
It doesn't help that they traded away rebound machine Reggie Evans to the Sixers, but it should improve if K-Mart comes back strong. Offensively, this team was the second fastest team in the league and pretty efficient at it, but I wouldn't be surprised if they ran even more this year. After watching Carmelo thrive in Team USA's up-tempo system and given the strong depth of the team, it wouldn't surprise me if Karl had them play even faster this year.
Prediction They might have the deepest collection of talent in the entire league. There are guys who can play at every position, and their frontcourt depth is incredible. However, the Nuggets are also one of the hardest teams to predict.
How will they come together chemistry-wise after an e ntire summer to integrate all the parts together? Can Marcus Camby stay healthy? How will Kenyon Martin come back from injury?
Will Nene get in shape? Will George Karl admit that he and John Lithgow are long lost twins? Can any of his teammates actually spell Yakhouba Diawara's name correctly?
Clearly, Denver has a lot of questions to answer coming into this year. What we do know is that they have a bona-fide upper-echelon star (Melo), an all-time great looking for a ring (The Answer), a great defensive center (Camby), and a bunch of very strong complementary players. To me, that means if they can put it all together, they've got a great shot at a title.
Lots of if s, but the talent is there.
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